USDA Projects Ag Trade Deficit Will Fall to $41.5 Billion in 2026· Aug 29, 2025
Persistent and potentially deepening reduction in U.S. soybean and broader ag exports to China will pressure U.S.-centric agribusiness and input suppliers while favoring globally diversified ag traders and more defensively positioned consumer food companies that can benefit from lower or more stable U.S. bulk commodity costs.
Position Reasoning
Nutrien’s fertilizer business is highly exposed to North American row-crop economics; structurally weaker U.S. soybean export demand and ongoing ag trade headwinds can pressure U.S. farmer profitability and, over time, fertilizer demand/pricing in North America, creating downside risk relative to expectations of a stable or improving demand cycle.