USDA Projects Ag Trade Deficit Will Fall to $41.5 Billion in 2026· Aug 29, 2025
China’s sharp pullback from U.S. ag purchases—especially soybeans—will depress U.S. farm incomes and soybean prices into FY26, benefiting protein producers and Brazil-levered traders while pressuring U.S. farm equipment demand and boosting nitrogen fertilizer demand if acreage shifts to corn.
Position Reasoning
A likely acreage shift from soybeans to corn in 2026 would lift nitrogen fertilizer consumption, supporting CF’s volumes and pricing.